Scenarios Forecasts Archives - International Aluminium Institute Shaping a better tomorrow in the Aluminium World Thu, 25 Sep 2025 14:27:57 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://international-aluminium.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/IAI-globe-150x150.png Scenarios Forecasts Archives - International Aluminium Institute 32 32 Development Of The Aluminum Industry And Technology In China https://international-aluminium.org/resources/development-of-the-aluminum-industry-and-technology-in-china/ Mon, 05 Feb 2024 18:10:15 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-development-of-the-aluminum-industry-and-technology-in-china/ Since the 1980s, the aluminum industry in China has made the most significant progress in two aspects. One is the annual output of primary aluminum that has continuously risen from roughly 400,000 tons in 1983 to 40.21 million tons in 2022, accounting for 58.8% of the total annual global output. Another aspect is the average […]

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Since the 1980s, the aluminum industry in China has made the most significant progress in two aspects. One is the annual output of primary aluminum that has continuously risen from roughly 400,000 tons in 1983 to 40.21 million tons in 2022, accounting for 58.8% of the total annual global output. Another aspect is the average total energy intensity (i.e. the average comprehensive AC power per tonne of aluminum), which has consistently decreased from 17,560 kWh/t-Al in 1983 to 13448kWh/t-Al in 2022, a reduction of 4112kWh/t-Al over the past 40 years.

Chinalco Zhengzhou Non-ferrous Metal Research Centre has published a new report on how the development and deployment of energy-saving, carbon-reducing, and digital-intelligent technologies in China’s aluminium electrolysis industry plays an essential role in demonstrating and promoting the technological and industrial development of the worldwide aluminium industry.

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Aluminium Beverage Can Recycling in United Arab Emirates and Asia Pacific https://international-aluminium.org/resources/aluminium-beverage-can-recycling-in-united-arab-emirates-and-asia-pacific/ Wed, 13 Sep 2023 19:27:31 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-aluminium-beverage-can-recycling-in-united-arab-emirates-and-asia-pacific/ A review of waste management maturity in six countries In 2023, the IAI commissioned Roland Berger to look into the current situation around aluminium can waste management and improvement levers in Australia, Cambodia, South Korea, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. Together, these countries provide representative insights into can usage, collection, and processing across different […]

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A review of waste management maturity in six countries

In 2023, the IAI commissioned Roland Berger to look into the current situation around aluminium can waste management and improvement levers in Australia, Cambodia, South Korea, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam.

Together, these countries provide representative insights into can usage, collection, and processing across different countries and cultures. The assessment also provides insight into the regional trade flows of used beverage cans (UBC) scrap in the Gulf and Asia Pacific regions – both major trading hubs.

The study identified that 60 million tonnes of CO2e per annum could be saved through effective global recycling of used beverage cans by 2030.

For each of the six countries, various aspects were analysed, including:Waste management and regulatory schemes; Collection infrastructure; Recycling and landfill rates; Volumes on market; Usage trends; Overall performance; Used beverage can trade; Material flows; Future recycling targets

The six countries fall into three broad categories:

  • Countries dependent on informal aluminium can collection mechanisms (e.g. Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam). They rely on a high number of informal workers. As cans generate revenue for the sector, these countries report high recovery rates.
  • Developed systems (e.g. Australia, South Korea). These rely on complex waste management systems such as extended producer responsibility (EPR) and/or deposit return systems (DRS).
  • Transitioning systems (e.g. UAE). Here the collection infrastructure is largely fully developed but does not include mandatory or well-functioning EPR, nor DRS systems.

The aluminium can continues to be the package of choice for the alcohol and soft drinks industries with global consumption expected to increase by 50 per cent between 2020 and 2030 (i.e., from 420 to 630 billion cans annually).

The study was co-funded by Emirates Global Aluminium, Crown Holdings, Australian Aluminium Council and Novelis.

The review involved stakeholder interviews, regulation reviews, market and value chain assessment,
data collection and data models and baselining (volumes, rates, prices, etc.).

A detailed visualisation based on the data developed by Roland Berger is now available on alucycle.

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Material Flow Analysis A Look At The Numbers Globally And In Asia https://international-aluminium.org/resources/material-flow-analysis-a-look-at-the-numbers-globally-and-in-asia/ Mon, 17 Jul 2023 18:48:17 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-material-flow-analysis-a-look-at-the-numbers-globally-and-in-asia/ The IAI has published the latest IAI Material Flow Model update. This update highlights the increase of production rates, recyclability and usage of scrap sources over the past 70 years (1950-2021). It also shows a particularly sharp rise in all areas over the past 20 years globally and even more so in Asia.

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The IAI has published the latest IAI Material Flow Model update. This update highlights the increase of production rates, recyclability and usage of scrap sources over the past 70 years (1950-2021). It also shows a particularly sharp rise in all areas over the past 20 years globally and even more so in Asia.

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2019 Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) Data and Environmental Metrics https://international-aluminium.org/resources/2019-life-cycle-inventory-lci-data-and-environmental-metrics/ Fri, 25 Nov 2022 12:06:19 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-2019-life-cycle-inventory-lci-data-and-environmental-metrics/ The aluminium industry has pioneered the application of life cycle approaches to assessing the impacts of materials and production. The 2019 Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) data summarises thousands of data points collected from over 200 sites worldwide across the entire industrial value chain. Due to the increase in reporters and improved data granularity – more […]

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The aluminium industry has pioneered the application of life cycle approaches to assessing the impacts of materials and production.

The 2019 Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) data summarises thousands of data points collected from over 200 sites worldwide across the entire industrial value chain. Due to the increase in reporters and improved data granularity – more regional datasets are now available for mining and refining.

The global Life Cycle Impact Assessment is based on collected LCI and Gabi background data and calculated by a refined industrial model in Gabi. The results show improvements in impact indicator categories such as greenhouse gas emissions. 2015 LCIA has been recalculated by the refined model and the updated results can be found in Appendix F.

For over two decades, the International Aluminium Institute has collected global aluminium industry data for LCAs. Since 1998 the IAI has published five Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) datasets and two Environmental Metrics Reports containing the evaluated potential impacts on ecosystems, humans and abiotic resources by primary aluminium production activities.

Archived Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) Data and Environmental Metrics are available here.

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Journey of a European Aluminium Beverage Can https://international-aluminium.org/resources/european-aluminium-can-cycle/ Wed, 21 Sep 2022 11:25:00 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-european-aluminium-can-cycle/ A new study confirms that an aluminium beverage can placed on the European market generates almost 90% of its added value in Europe. Eunomia Research and Consulting, on behalf of the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), have built a material flow model for aluminium cans sold in Europe including raw material extraction and all production stages. […]

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A new study confirms that an aluminium beverage can placed on the European market generates almost 90% of its added value in Europe.

Eunomia Research and Consulting, on behalf of the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), have built a material flow model for aluminium cans sold in Europe including raw material extraction and all production stages. The countries included in this model referred to as ‘Europe’ are the 27 European Union member states, European Free Trade Association member countries and the United Kingdom. The model displays where raw material extraction and production are taking place to produce an aluminium can put on the market in Europe.

This data, together with economic data on the aluminium can value chain concludes that the European value-added share of a can put on the European market is reported at 89.1% in 2019.

This material flow model, based on the data developed by Eunomia Research & Consulting – from mining to use and recycling of a can sold in Europe in 2019, is now available on alucycle

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Cost Competitiveness of PET, Aluminium and Glass Beverage Containers https://international-aluminium.org/resources/cost-competitiveness-of-pet-aluminium-and-glass-beverage-containers/ Tue, 13 Sep 2022 13:00:18 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-cost-competitiveness-of-pet-aluminium-and-glass-beverage-containers/ Evaluation of the economics of PET, aluminium and glass beverage containers in 2021 and the impact of carbon taxes. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) engaged Wood Mackenzie to evaluate the economics of PET, aluminium and glass beverage containers in 2021 and the impact of carbon taxes. The study considered the costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) […]

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Evaluation of the economics of PET, aluminium and glass beverage containers in 2021 and the impact of carbon taxes.

The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) engaged Wood Mackenzie to evaluate the economics of PET, aluminium and glass beverage containers in 2021 and the impact of carbon taxes. The study considered the costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at each stage of the value chain for each material in each region.

The key objectives of the study were to understand the relative cost-competitiveness of PET, aluminium and glass beverage containers in the US, Western Europe (EU15, EFTA countries) and China, and the sensitivity of the economics to different recycled content and carbon tax.

For the full Report – please contact Marlen Bertram – IAI’s Director – Scenarios & Forecasts.

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Recycling of aluminium from buildings in China https://international-aluminium.org/resources/global-impacts-of-aluminium-flows-from-end-of-life-buildings-in-china/ Tue, 30 Aug 2022 14:17:51 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-global-impacts-of-aluminium-flows-from-end-of-life-buildings-in-china/ A new study on the recycling of aluminium building products in China confirms collection rates of 100% for the majority of buildings surveyed and that most aluminium window frames are recycled in closed-loop systems. Professor Wei-Qiang Chen and Dr Wanjun Wang from the Institute of Urban Environment (IUE), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), surveyed nine […]

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A new study on the recycling of aluminium building products in China confirms collection rates of 100% for the majority of buildings surveyed and that most aluminium window frames are recycled in closed-loop systems.

Professor Wei-Qiang Chen and Dr Wanjun Wang from the Institute of Urban Environment (IUE), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), surveyed nine residential and commercial building demolition projects in all four corners of China – Beijing, Xi’an, Shanghai, and Xiamen. The study traced the collection and recycling routes of aluminium scrap from buildings and collected information and data from several waste collection centres, aluminium scrap dealers, and aluminium recycling enterprises across China.

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Opportunities For Aluminium In A Post-Covid Economy https://international-aluminium.org/resources/opportunities-for-aluminium-in-a-post-covid-economy/ Tue, 22 Mar 2022 23:00:00 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-opportunities-for-aluminium-in-a-post-covid-economy/ This study, conducted by business intelligence analysts CRU International on behalf of the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), details demand across key industrial sectors and regions in a post-Covid economy. Transportation, construction, packaging and the electrical sectors are the four key sectors that will drive demand, accounting for 75% of the total metal required.

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This study, conducted by business intelligence analysts CRU International on behalf of the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), details demand across key industrial sectors and regions in a post-Covid economy.

Transportation, construction, packaging and the electrical sectors are the four key sectors that will drive demand, accounting for 75% of the total metal required.

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Monday Stats Post – 2021 Annual Compiled Posts https://international-aluminium.org/resources/aluminium-recycling-fact-sheet-2/ Mon, 17 Jan 2022 12:00:00 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-aluminium-recycling-fact-sheet-2/ A compilation of the Monday Stats Post by Marlen Bertram, the IAI’s Director of Scenarios and Forecasts Since February 2021, the IAI started piloting a regular post with unique IAI statistics and insights. This data is compiled by IAI’s Director of Scenarios and Forecasts, Marlen Bertram. The Monday Stats Post by Marlen Bertram has since […]

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A compilation of the Monday Stats Post by Marlen Bertram, the IAI’s Director of Scenarios and Forecasts

Since February 2021, the IAI started piloting a regular post with unique IAI statistics and insights. This data is compiled by IAI’s Director of Scenarios and Forecasts, Marlen Bertram. The Monday Stats Post by Marlen Bertram has since become a major feature of our advocacy work on social media and is very popular with our followers. This document contains a compilation of all the posts that will be updated annually.

To explore more of the IAI’s material flow data, please visit Alucycle.

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1.5 Degrees Scenario: A Model To Drive Emissions Reduction https://international-aluminium.org/resources/1-5-degrees-scenario-a-model-to-drive-emissions-reduction/ Tue, 26 Oct 2021 10:50:31 +0000 https://elisaa12.sg-host.com/resources/https-international-aluminium-org-resource-1-5-degrees-scenario-a-model-to-drive-emissions-reduction/ IAI models 1.5-degree decarbonisation scenario in a bid to drive greater emissions reductions This scenario will guide and inform what industry does – much is currently happening. The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) has modelled a 1.5 Degree Scenario to guide its member’s efforts to meet global climate goals. The modelling is based on IEA’s Net-Zero […]

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IAI models 1.5-degree decarbonisation scenario in a bid to drive greater emissions reductions

This scenario will guide and inform what industry does – much is currently happening.

The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) has modelled a 1.5 Degree Scenario to guide its member’s efforts to meet global climate goals. The modelling is based on IEA’s Net-Zero by 2050 scenario, combined with the IAI’s material flow analysis and future demand scenarios.

This scenario is the most ambitious decarbonisation approach and complements existing work which includes: detailed historical emissions, business as usual scenario (BAU) to 2050 and a ‘Beyond 2 Degrees Scenario (B2DS).

Both the 1.5 Degree Scenario and B2DS are consistent with the Paris agreement.

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